MARSH MIGRATION
“...Rising sea level poses a long-term threat to salt marshes worldwide (Crosby et al., 2016). Marshes respond to increased inundation through enhanced accretion and inland migration (Feagin et al., 2010; Kirwan et al., 2016; Morris et al., 2002; Torio and Chmura, 2013). Vertical accretion allows the marsh to maintain its elevation relative to mean sea level and inland migration, through the conversion of the adjacent uplands to marsh, helps compensate for areal losses caused by edge erosion and rising sea level. However, a marsh’s ability to vertically accrete depends on sediment availability, and the ability to migrate onto uplands depends on topography....”
- Assessing the response of the Great Marsh to sea-level rise: Migration, submersion or survival / Sarah J. Farron, Zoe J. Hughes, Duncan M. FitzGerald / Boston University, Dept Earth and Environment
Where will marsh reestablishment take place? Will it be in open water, which will depend on dredged material and protection strategies? Will it be on existing agricultural land that will require potential new partnerships and land use strategies? Will it be on deconstructed development which would need extensive remediation and land preparation?
Or will it be somewhere else?
How does the phasing of marsh loss and reestablishment, SLR and subsidence, and potential economic development or retreat strategies align for maximum ecological benefit?
This work explores marsh migration and eventual marsh loss in Salem County, New Jersey to capture what I believe to be an overwhelming process and immediate ecological crisis, despite predicted significant losses occurring in the 22nd century. Using both analytical modeling methods and abstracted studies, this work balances accuracy and precision with speculation and softness. More broadly, these models and studies exemplify why climate adaptation and resilience need to be taking place in and around nonurban landscapes and planned well before a single disaster.