Likely Futures Exhibition: Blue Acres
The Blue Acres team explored an ambitious restructuring of the Blue Acres program as the vehicle for a transformation of New Jersey’s coastal communities.
Blue Acres
Reframing
Present situation…
Currently many localities in New Jersey experience declining population due to a variety of reasons. Sea level rise will only exacerbate existing conditions through flooding, environmental degradation, salt water intrusion affecting fresh water sources, and increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events like storm Sandy.
These factors have an outsized impact on the more vulnerable sectors of society, which have less access to economic and financial resources to make timely proactive decisions. As a result, these populations are exposed to increased risks and suffer not only compounded economic effects in areas with declining economies and deteriorating infrastructure, but also social and psychological effects as a result of trauma when extreme weather hits and affects their homes and livelihoods.
What this means for New Jersey and the Blue Acres policy…
In light of this reality, New Jersey is faced with a grim prospect: large areas of the New Jersey riverine and Atlantic maritime coast will be increasingly threatened by sea level rise in the coming decades. It is not physically nor economically feasible to protect these huge swaths of land from flooding. For many communities and people in these areas the choice will center on when to move, not whether to move or stay.
Considering these likely climate scenarios, we could imagine contrasting future trajectories for the state. If no action is taken, people will not be provided tools to make decisions about their future, families will continue to be impoverished and eventually abandon their homes as a dispersed diaspora while communities languish. But if decisive action is taken, people will be empowered to act proactively and the state can make strategic investments and direct enterprising individuals to safer areas, enabling them to retain ties to their communities while acting as catalysts for regional development within the receiving areas of New Jersey’s coastal plain.
The policy decisions made today will determine whether people can make autonomous decisions about relocation and adaptation that suit the needs of their communities and New Jersey as a whole, or whether they will require emergency resettlement assistance.
Our team explored an ambitious restructuring of the Blue Acres program as the vehicle for a transformation of New Jersey’s coastal communities.
Business as Usual
The Blue Acres team examined the potential outcomes for Salem and Atlantic City if the Blue Acres Program remained unchanged and New Jersey continued to prioritize northern counties for resiliency funding. This ‘Business As Usual’ framework was explored through a series of newspaper articles and scenario images set in 2050. The purpose of this medium was to transport the audience into the daily life of a local resident, placing them in the shoes of the resident as they gaze out of their window while reading the newspaper resting on their nightstand. The newspaper articles delved into different themes such as the potential impact of Salem’s residents and industries in the event of another Hurricane similar to Superstorm Sandy, and regional repercussions such a disaster could entail. Additionally, it considered the conditions around development in Atlantic City, projecting a futuring where back bay resilience infrastructure is inequitable and funded by increased luxury real estate, based on current resilience projects. In contrast to the Business As Usual, the team also explored the potential outcomes of Salem and Atlantic City if the Blue Acres Program underwent restructuring, envisioning them as a resilient model for the region.
Sustainable Funding
The Blue Acres Program will be funded through the following sources of revenue:
Allocations from the state budget
Grants and allocations awarded by the federal government of the United States, its departments, federal agencies, and any other public entities;
Revenue collected by the Special Adaptation and Resilience (SAR) districts established under the provisions section of this act, including but not limited to the proceeds from the Land Value Capture policy and other revenue streams resulting from lawful use of the public lands acquired through this program and projects that are compatible with its environmental resilience goals
Environmental and natural resources damages program to channel funds from fines, administrative action and/or awards from litigation pertaining to assets or activities in the State of New Jersey;
Any donations or charitable contributions by philanthropic institutions, non-profit organizations, or any other public or private entities.
Incentives
According to Fawn McGee, the Director of the Blue Acres Program, “one of the hardest parts of the buyout process is convincing the governing body of a community.” During our initial research of the Blue Acres Program, we found that because of municipal budget structures, coastal cities and towns lack good incentives to participate in Buyout Programs, even if it is in the best interest of their residents. To counter this barrier to effective resilience policy, we envisioned a future where tax base sharing between more and less vulnerable coastal communities enables large scale retreat of at-risk neighborhoods and the re-establishment of buffer wetlands. Building off of tax base sharing precedents like the Hackensack Meadowlands District, our project proposed the establishment of Special Adaptation and Resilience (SAR) Districts between municipalities within the same county or between counties. More specifically, we imagined SAR district agreements between Atlantic City and the neighboring town of Pleasantville, as well as between Atlantic and Salem Counties. This would allow the relocation of residents and industries and establishment of wetland buffers without threatening communities’ financial health. To supplement this policy, we also imagined a re-zoning / up-zoning of Pleasantville, to accommodate new residents and small businesses moving from Atlantic City.
Land Revitalization and Stewardship
The team focused on potential partnerships that Blue Acres could enter into that focus on land revitalization and stewardship in the context of retreat. Land under public ownership is a limited resource and through the acquisition and management of public lands, the blue acres program can expand its ability to contribute to a reparative commons framework.
This framing includes an emphasis on the following principles:
Ecological restoration and conservation: regeneration and conservation of critical habitats in NJ
Economic resilience: promoting economic resilience and financial incentives on public lands
Education: developing pilot projects for climate resiliency knowledge building
Stewardship: caring for common land for multi-generational resilience
This framework was tested out through a phased lease transfer plan sited in Salem, NJ, where 20-30 year leases would be granted to different partners for different uses. These lease durations are one possible sequence and we based them on sea level rise with shifting programs such as floating / elevated solar and phytoremediation at current sea level and storm surges for around 30 years. This shifts into a 20-year intertidal research ground with 2ft of sea level rise in collaboration with partners such as the Wetland Institute and Bartram’s garden. This further develops into an aquaculture initiative with 3.5ft sea level rise in partner ship with the NJDEP and the Native American Advancement Corporation. These programs are not prescriptive, but reflect an example of an adaptive lease transfer and partnerships program that can adapt to changing climate conditions and economic needs of Salem.
Social & Relief
As a part of the exploring likely futures, we explored unconditional DCTs as a potential equity tool in a buyout program. The Blue Acres program, as a buyout mechanism, and in its current form does not effectively encourage participation from low-income and marginalized households. While the program offers buyout awards, it may not offer sufficient flexibility to address the diverse needs of relocating families. Integrating unconditional direct cash transfers (DCTs) for a period after relocation could potentially improve the program's equity and adaptability. DCTs could provide immediate financial relief to households facing challenges such as moving costs, securing new housing, replacing belongings, and re-establishing their lives in a new community. The flexibility of cash allows more disadvantaged families to participate in the program by giving them the agency to allocate funds based on their unique needs, whether for housing, transportation, childcare, or other priorities. Piloting DCTs within the Blue Acres program, with consideration for funding, legal, operational, and political factors, could assess their impact and feasibility before scaling up. By incorporating DCTs, the program could more effectively support proactive and equitable managed retreat from climate-vulnerable areas while promoting the long-term well-being and resilience of families and local economies.